Proff. Haley Fowler only talks about Wet Bulb Temperatures in Pakistan and the Global South. But the problem is that they are already occuring in the UK!
Add to that the misinformation doing the rounds on Facebook. 35°C as a a oimit for human survival under wet bulb conditions is out of date.
Published: 29 November 2023
“A physiological approach for assessing human survivability and liveability to heat in a changing climate.
Jennifer Vanos, Gisel Guzman-Echavarria, …Ollie Jay Show authors
Nature Communications volume 14. (2023)
Abstract
“Most studies projecting human survivability limits to extreme heat with climate change use a 35 °C wet-bulb temperature (Tw) threshold without integrating variations in human physiology. This study applies physiological and biophysical principles for young and older adults, in sun or shade, to improve current estimates of survivability and introduce liveability (maximum safe, sustained activity) under current and future climates. Our physiology-based survival limits show a vast underestimation of risks by the 35 °C Tw model in hot-dry conditions. Updated survivability limits correspond to Tw~25.8–34.1 °C (young) and ~21.9–33.7 °C (old)—0.9–13.1 °C lower than Tw = 35 °C. For older female adults, estimates are ~7.2–13.1 °C lower than 35 °C in dry conditions. Liveability declines with sun exposure and humidity, yet most dramatically with age (2.5–3.0 METs lower for older adults). Reductions in safe activity for younger and older adults between the present and future indicate a stronger impact from aging than warming.”
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-43121-5
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Doomers, McPhearson, Dowd, Hanson & how we are all met with derision & denial when we #TellTheTruth
I really do get where Dr Guy McPreason is coming from, and I also get it when Michael Diwd says you can’t just tell people they are going to die.
So, how do we communicate our own demise in the 6th mass extinction?
Firstly, I like the manner in which Michael Dowd addresses Guy McPheasrsons’ misplaced accusation of defamation.
But outside of the land of the polite, compassionate, and educated response to the 6th mass extinction, there is much. To be desired. Derision, denial & accusations of insanity are among the most extreme anti climate change trolling online, and it IS trolling just to be clear. While there are probably a multitude of reasons for this, primarily these come to the forefront:
On a personal level
It is/ you are too complicated, I can’t talk to you.
Too many links are really off-putting.
I don’t watch the news, I don’t believe in science, I know what I know. I’m not interested & you are wrong.
Predictions, predictions, predictions, all wrong, all got the dates wrong
Quoting Roman Emperors on truth & doomism:
Marcus Aurelius
Seldom, very seldom, does complete truth belong to any human disclosure; seldom can it happen that something is not a little disguised, or a little mistaken
On a cultural level
A culture that can evolve inside closed forums of special interest groups using the environment for recreational purposes can become toxic, where the Admins and Moderators sympathise with the trolls, of feel unable to act against them dues to Stockholm syndrome:
Abuser love: Trolls are kind towards some of the Admins while they are onside with the Trolls ethos. This divides the Admins. Trolls primarily attack new members, ensuring they adhere to the group think & if they don’t & especially if they try to address emotive issues such as climate change they risk ridicule & derision.
Interestingly, sympathetic members might private message a new member, surprised and apologetic about other members. But clearly a quick search quickly reveals sites dominated by a set group think. Group think is dangerous, expected outdoorsy types on a warming planet.
Hyperthermia or heat exhaustion is a killer. Failure to understand dangerous wet bulb temperatures on a warming planet have been proved to be lethal, for the outdoorsy types.
Doomers & Acivists or Doomers are Activists or Doomers are Innactivists
This conflict is even present in some climate activist groups. There is a conflict between doomers and some climate activists, especially those who follow Proff Michael E Mann, who has ceased to research climate science & now concentrates on ensuring the climate message is optimistic hopium. While at the same time claiming to talk to doomers while blocking them on X (Twitter) and claiming that they have given up & are doing nothing. Based on no empirical research or peer reviewed papers, he makes these comments. Perhaps Professor Michael E Mann could inform us as to how he has helped reduce fossil Fuels emissions through his activism? None at all, fossil fuel emissions are increasing.
This is not a conflict started by Doomers. But as Michael Dowd says “you can’t just tell people they are going to die.” Little wonder that we are vilified, Let’s just not turn it on each other more than we already have.
Dr Peter Carter Climate Emergency Institute, September Report.
Summary.
If it seems to you that the climate situation is getting worse?
Methane increase “explosive” -NOAA
Rapid off the charts increase in Ocean Surface Temperature (SST).
Driven by the cancerous fossil fuel industry.
<10 hirosimas/Second energy entering the ocean & hitting the earth.
Indian Ocean- South india & Sea around Florida reported to be hot as a bath.
“Climate change and extreme heat waves strongly affect sea urchin populations,” Okamoto said. “When their numbers explode, sea urchins can devastate ecosystems by eating everything in their path. In northern California, heat waves mean massive amounts of baby sea urchins. In southern California, it’s the opposite, heat waves collapse the number of new young urchins.”
1992 Rio Earth Summit to present, Zero Action.
Humans are brininging about the collapse of the biosphere.
The evidence is overwhelming that the agenda is to burn all the fossil fuels now! Followed by geoengineering..
This is our “Don’t Look Up Moment” fossil fuels, Banking & Disaster Capitalism are the enemy.
Watch
Some Preppers /Survivalist Denial of Heatwaves & the Implications of this Denial.
“A heat-period is defined as day(s) on which a Level 3 Heat Health Alert is issued and/or day(s) when the mean Central England Temperature is greater than 20°C; between June and August 2022, there were five heat-periods that met this criterion.” Source: MET Office.
I have watched a number of Preppers YouTuber channels for some years and note that they are developing their own homegrown weather forecasting, ignoring severe heat events, and “poopooing” the accepted science of meteorology & empirical data. They believe that the above temperature of 20°C is too low, though fail to provide any indication as to why.
The problem lies in data. The failure to grasp the data, understanding mean temperature, and the fact that aggregated data produces a monthly mean which is lower than 20°C. Average temperature for the UK for June, July, August & September 1961-2020 is between 14-18°C so therefore 20°C is the anomaly & marker for a heatwave. The suggestion that ti’s is too cool fails to take humidity into account.
The climate of the UK has always been characterised as unsettled and predominantly rainy. The weather is the Englishmans favourite topic for discussion- Cold, wet & windy. Therefore this would indicate there is is a high level of airborne moisture. While the weather is cool the airborne moisture is hardly noticeable. Add some additional heat to the mean and quickly we enter the realm of the unbearable and dangerous.
The Dangers of Dismissing the Warnings
I think that Preppers would prefer a heatwave to be classed as 30°C or over. But failure to understand humidity & the increased carrying capacity of moisture in the atmosphere brought on by warmer air. It’s either a failure to understand or flat out denial of science or both.
Setting the bar higher is a mistake. It would not take into account situations like south facing gardens, other natural and man-made environments, which become heat traps. Temperatures in heat traps can be 5-7° higher than the forecast & actual air temperature. Couple higher temperatures with humidity & sun traps can become “thermal kill zones”
Learn About & Understand Wet-Bulb Temperatures & the Impacts on life.
08/09/2023 16:00 39°C in Oxfordshire
70% humidity
Wet bulb temperature 33°.98C
“Wet-bulb temperatures above 30 °C (86 °F) pose potential fatal danger to humans outside. It’s also very uncomfortable. In these conditions, you should avoid direct sunlight and drink lots of water.”
Adaptation Primary Checklist #Skills4Collapse
This is a condensed version of the basic adaptations required for climate change survival as outlined in the Climate Safe Villages Forums.
ClimateSafe Villages is a preparatory survival concept for individuals and communities to attempt to survive climate change. Ideally large urban populations should organise themselves into smaller networked groups of approximately 100 people/families this way everyone one is able to know & recognise each other in that group. These are referred to as hubs or local hub communities.
All information is open source and non copyrighted.
The Climate Safe Community is an open forum & community across the globe. This us a global crisis & we are now “in a fight for our lives”, Dr Peter Carter, IPCC Reviewer.
Basic Principles & the social contract
Skill Share Shops ideally should exist for at least 4 ClimateSafe Villages, region or city and provide expertise & independent advice in all of the essential climate change survival items below plus much more.
A. The local hub communities encourage all their members and local citizens to start growing organic gardens everywhere to ensure an adequate and reliable food supply. Every home or building rooftop in urban areas will need a big garden to survive the worst of what is coming. Hydroponics and aquaponics will also help build food security in urban or limited land areas. You won’t be able to produce every food item you want, but if you produce a surplus in your gardens you can trade with each other or individuals outside the ClimateSafe Village for other things you will need.
B. The local eco-community must secure its energy system against extreme climate consequences. Encouraging members to gets solar and/or wind on their property is a basic step. .
C. The local eco-community must begin quickly to protect its drinking water and sewage systems against intensified rain bombs, river and lake flooding, sea level rise, and other extreme climate consequences. Home or business water capture, rainwater harvesting and water filtration systems are a good start. These do not have to be expensing buried systems, old olive import barrels are adequate. 2100 litres is 10 barrels.
D. Help your outside local community understand critical medical facilities, critical commodity warehouses, and other critical infrastructure and services that must be supplied and fortified against the escalating climate change and rapidly approaching climate disasters that will affect many of these communities far faster than they are prepared for.
E. There are also many other things your local stay-where-you-are local urban, suburban, or rural model can do to help get your outside the ClimateSafe Village local community prepared to deal with what is coming, including creating a plan and reserving supplies for how to fairly and humanely deal with growing numbers of destitute and desperate climate migrants (internal & external)(climagees) who soon will coming from the climate unsafe areas be seeking refuge in your city, suburb or rural area.
Unfortunately with this stay-where-you-are local urban, suburban, and rural model, if you are not already in a climate safer area, there will come a point that it will no longer be safe for your group to remain in some urban, suburban or rural area. Every stay-where-you-are urban, surburban and rural satellite model should consider this possibility carefully and plan for it and its timetable long in advance.
Suppose you are currently in a climate change high-risk area. Eventually, you will have to buy some fertile land as a temporary or longer-term eco-community emergency backup and “bug-out” space. In addition, this emergency backup bug-out land would also need to be pre-stocked with everything your eco-community would need to survive for months to as long as years. In addition, you would have to have the means to transport and defend everything you will need at that new eco-community bug-out location. The painful truth is that unless you are already in a climate change-safer location to begin with, at some point, you will probably be forced to move if you want to survive.
Please note that urban and suburban ClimateSafe Villages inherently may not be able to do as much food growing as rural land-based ClimateSafe Villages because the land owned by urban and suburban members is most likely not connected and contagious. But urban and suburban members can get creative and, through networking, sharing, and trading accomplish much of the necessary climate change preparation and adaptation.
You will be on your own, you need community to do this & an inclusive life philosophy. Hiding in a bunkers alone will send you mad. There will be no end in sight.
Are We Prepping For The Wrong Apocalypse?
Who is prepping for climate change? Possibly only 2 prepper Youtube Channels!!
&
Other than these 2 a foray into British prepping has produced a field dominated by funkyprepper & the Prepper Shop, the 2 at one time were linked I believe.
Funkyprepper is definitely obsessed with his followers, YouTube is his bugle and market place. It would appear that he is cornering the Prepping stage for the Bushcraft Show too.
https://thebushcraftshow.co.uk/
The question I would have for the Bushcraft Show is this? Funkyprepper regularly puts out anti immigration, Anti LGBTQ, anti public health and safety content and disputes NHS England guidelines on health and the wearing of masks during periods of the pandemic. He gives no advice on climate change & the ecological catastrophe or the 6th Mass Extinction we are currently experiencing, he does not believe in Anthropogenic Climate Change. He is giving duff advice about heatwaves and its dangerous. (See my post on why Severe Heat is More Dangerous than Severe Cold)
Historic Heat, Climate Emergency Forum.
In fact I don’t think any British Prepper Channel talks about the compound human risk factors associated with the Anthropocene.
“The Anthropocene Epoch is an unofficial unit of geologic time, used to describe the most recent period in Earth’s history when human activity started to have a significant impact on the planet’s climate and ecosystems.”
https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/anthropocene/
I would hope that the Bushcraft Show would be an inclusive organisation, after all we want lots of people to learn skills which could be useful in an uncertain future.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/15/climate-crisis-survival-course-wilderness
I note also that there is an interest in permaculture too. There are no anthropocegenic climate change deniers in the permaculture community.
Bushcraft show you can do better than this. Ray Mears on YouTube says it as it is. “If we don’t act now it will be too late”.
This is our business as nature lovers.
I have to just add Canadian Preppers take on Burning Man & the Climate Apocalypse. This is what prepping is about, understanding our predicament, not talking about idiots like David Ike.
Biodiversity & Habitat Loss
Global pollinator losses causing 500,000 early deaths a year – study
Guardian headline.
Here is the article
Less desd bugs on the windshield. The insect apocalypse is directly linked with the use of agricultural chemicals, especially the highly toxic neonicotinoid pesticides.
The study indicates that 500,000 people are dying due to a lack of nutritious good and this is due to.poor pollination.
Collapse of civilisation is not going to be a joyride, so how can you prep for it?
Whether we like it or not, civilisation collapse is here. It has already started. Almost every previous civilisation has collapsed due to environmental collapse. This civilisation is no different.
Climate change and habitat loss for humans on a global scale, this is a global civilisation. Through the use of fossil fuels, we have warmed the planet out of the Ice Age & into the era of a Hothouse Earth. The heat is only just beginning 2 40°C days in the UK in 2022, unusually warm winter & changed weather systems. Spontaneous wildfires will be a more common feature of our daily lives. As we saw in the summer, it can be devastating in urban areas.
Prepping for climate change is no different from prepping for any other period of long-term hardship. Our grandparents learned quickly during the war how to survive rationing. We may be looking at no food or prohibitively expensive food in the very near future. So, stockpiling some foods for hard times isn’t a bad idea. I am not interested in discussing what you should stockpile. There are plenty of people talking about that on YouTube,for example, Canadian Prepper – I ignore his news bulletins, I don’t expect to survive a nuclear attack, nor do I want to. I would be wary of any prepper who are in denial about climate change. They really don’t have their finger on the pulse of existential threat. Canadian Prepper has interviewed Guy McPhearson.
Guy McPhearson, professor of evolutionary biology and author of many peer reviewed papers, is of the opinion that the type of skills and lifestyle needed to survive climate change is not for him. He used to own a homestead farm. He is talking about the collapse of agriculture caused by runaway heating. The chain reactions of the human population collapse will mean that no one will be making nuclear power plants safe, and the meltdown of multiple nuclear power plants hes says will strip away that protective ozone, which will likely end all life on earth. Guy Mcphearson has a YouTube channel – he is depressingly honest.
I agree that it is unlikely that there will be humans on earth in 2100. But there might be. The question is this: What will they be eating?
Paradigm Shift.
Industrial civilisation is in a deep state of collapse, and yet many British preppers are still dependent on their cars, they shun electric vehicles, bicycles & even e-bikes. This attitude is deeply flawed. Dependence on a vehicle in a SHTF will probably mean you are stuck in traffic with everyone else & look sorted, so you are immediately a target.
Canadian Prepper was questioned by his fans about his ethnicity & he took a genetic test & was found to be part native American, part African American, part European. Skin colour shouldn’t be an issue. But it is. I have been asked by British preppers about my spear throwing abilities? It’s one of those stupid jokes that racists make. They think they are ever so original & funny. Yes, it is deeply offensive. When it comes to outdoor skills where you are from, your ethnicity or skin colour are irrelevant. Whether you can survive and pass those skills on is far more important. Oh, and on the subject of spear throwing that peculiar pronged stick you saw me carrying is an Atlatl dart thrower. Insult me by all means. Just don’t turn your back on me, an atlatl dart can be as fast as a rifle bullet, can cause catastrophic internal dammage, and this has been scientifically proven.
The modern urbanised human is going to face multiple challenges all at once: Sporadic sanitation, unsafe water, and the collapse of agriculture, as well as no electricity and gas supply. Let’s add to that severe heating and unpredictable weather, flooding, bush fires, sea level rise, severe storms & winds that can damage buildings.
Stockpiling food and water won’t be enough. This is a crisis to which there is no end. Humans don’t need industrialism to survive they need nature, and yet industrialism is destroying nature faster than it can replenish itself. The paradigm shift occurs when humans realise that they are part of nature in the same way that indigenous people have always seen themselves as part of nature and its caretakers.
Prepping needs to be a multicultural inclusive activity. The more people who are prepping for collapse, the better the chances of a just & equitable collapse. The super rich Silicone Valley billionaires are headed for New Zealand bunkers while worrying whether their special forces mercenaries will turn on them. No doubt, the billionaires expect it all to be over in a few years, and they can carry on trashing the planet. Mercenaries steal their food and seal them in there!
Self reindigenisation is the paradigm shift
Either we learn to adapt to the loss of growing grain at scale, or we die very quickly.
While climate change may not be survivable, I would rather die trying to be the most natural and best human I can be for the planet than carty on along the business as usual planetary destruction route.
This blog is about the skills and minimal gear you will likely need to navigate civilisation collapse
Solidarity Prepping: Preparing For Climate Change 