First published January 15, 2026 here on my old Blogger Blog: Collapse Adaptation. https://collapseadaptation.blogspot.com/2026/01/irans-riots-in-context-of-climate.html
Iran is in the grip of a national poly crisis. Sanctions, despotic corruption, financial mismanagement, drought, pollution, economic collapse and ecological collapse triggering social unrest and government crackdowns because this is how any state has always responded to bread riots. The climate crisis is driving a major drought, and the country is water bankrupt.
“Dry spells everywhere”
Iran is now grappling with its sixth consecutive year of drought, while heatwaves pushed temperatures above 50°C (122°F) during the last summer.
The past water year, ending in late September 2025, was one of the driest on record, with the current year shaping up to be worse, with Iran receiving only 2.3mm (0.09 inches) of precipitation by early November, down by 81 per cent compared with the historical average of the same period, the Meteorological Organisation said.
A whopping 19 dams – up from nine three weeks ago – are on the verge of drying out, with less than 5 per cent of their capacity remaining. Dozens of others are not faring much better, according to data from the Water Resources Management Company.” Al Jazeera
So the leadership proposes moving the Capital, rather than implementing climate-friendly carbon reductions.
In 2022, Iran offered climate action in exchange for sanctions being lifted.
“The climate change fact is intense among the Middle East countries and especially Iran. Among Middle East countries, Iran will experience a 2.6 °C increase in mean temperatures and a 35% decline in precipitation in the coming decades. In vice versa, Iran, with total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of nearly 616,741 million tons of CO2, is the first responsible country for climate change in the Middle East, and seventh in the world. The high-level contribution of Iran to emissions of GHG depends on significant production of oil, gas, and rapid urbanisation,” Springer Document
“..Beneath the headlines of currency devaluations and street clashes lies a deeper, more permanent driver of dissent: ecological calamity.
Decades of ignoring scientists, persecuting activists and greenlighting corrupt development schemes have triggered a water crisis so severe that President Masoud Pezeshkian warned in November that Tehran’s residents may eventually have to evacuate the capital city, which is sinking as dried-up aquifers give way.
The devastation extends far beyond Tehran. Lake Urmia, once one of the world’s largest salt lakes, has shrivelled to less than 10 per cent of its volume, while the iconic Zayandeh River has sat dry for years. Wildfires have ravaged the parched Hyrcanian forests, a UNESCO World Heritage site. In the oil-rich Khuzestan province, home to Iran’s Arab minority, state-led water diversion has devastated the local economy and inflamed ethnic grievances.”
Iran Is Already In Agricultural Collapse
“Shrinkflation” is how food packages mask rising prices and shortages.
“Javad Hosseinikia, a member of the regime’s parliament, confirmed that the cost of some goods has surged by over 80%.
This economic pressure is making basic survival a daily struggle. According to a September 9 report by the state-run Rokna News Agency, the price of staples like chicken and dairy is rising so relentlessly that families are being forced to remove them from their dinner tables. Dairy companies have resorted to shrinking package sizes to mask the price hikes—a desperate tactic that underscores the collapse of public purchasing power. The regime’s own Vice President, Mohammad Reza Aref, has publicly confessed to “widespread corruption” and “unnatural” price increases.
This combination of infrastructural collapse and economic misery is fueling nationwide anger. From the southern provinces of Khuzestan, Sistan, and Baluchestan to the towns around the capital, protests are erupting. Their chant directly responds to the regime’s failures: “Water, electricity, life, our undeniable right.” It is the true voice of a nation that sees its resources plundered and its future squandered, recognising that the only solution to these compounding crises is to remove the root cause, which is the regime itself.”
“The collapse of biodiversity and food security in Iran
The desiccation of thousands of oak trees in the Zagros mountain range and the transformation of pastures into barren deserts have not only driven Iran’s ecosystem towards ruin, but have put the country’s food security on the verge of collapse.
According to natural resources reports, more than 1.5 million hectares (close to 30 per cent) of Zagros oak forests have suffered dieback and decline. This impacts the forest’s natural filtration of water and soil, leading to increased runoff, soil erosion and water contamination.
Each year, around 100,000 hectares of farmland and rangeland in Iran are at risk of becoming an absolute desert. Experts also say soil degradation in Iran has now reached a critical level, as the rate of erosion is about three times the global average and the highest among Middle Eastern countries.”
Iran’s Current Civil Unrest Indicates A Crisis Which Meets Every Indicator For A Country Facing Ecological Collapse Driven By Anthropogenic Climate Change
Iran’s significant oil wealth has been largely squandered on a nuclear weapons program, instead of sustainability.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/20211205244208
The BBC reports more than 2000 deaths as Trump says help(?) is coming.
Tehran, Iran – Iranians in the capital and many other cities across the country are breathing in toxic fumes as authorities resort to burning dirty fuel to produce electricity and cope with multiple ongoing crises.
Iran is the canary in the coal mine.
In the UK in 2021, 2, 3, 4 & 5 all reported spring droughts. The increasingly dry springs (I posted a video about this in May) and summers are affecting hay production, which will impact sheep and dairy farming and make horse keeping an unaffordable luxury for all but the privileged. The UK’s oilseed and grain harvest was also down nearly 20% this year. The G7 will respond to Iran with more sanctions. Yet the same G7 countries respond to climate protests with increasingly draconian laws and the same corruption and inaction over the climate crisis as it worsens.
Timeline for this article:
First published 15/01/2026. Edited 28/08/2026. This paragraph is being added following Trump’s attack being announced on 28 February 2026. It is unclear whether the US had advance intelligence of Iran’s response capability or decentralised command structure. IMHO, I would suggest that they didn’t, and that they were unaware of how much Iran knew of the US/Israeli defensive radar infrastructure in the Middle East. Iran, using weapons worth hundreds of thousands of US$, has conducted a large-scale destructive campaign against the US and its allies’ military infrastructure in the Middle East.
Iran’s population were rioting against the government before the attacks. There is nothing like an attack from the outside against schools and other civilian targets to unite the population against the attacker and support their government. We now know that decapitation campaigns only work in certain circumstances, and Iran wasn’t one of them.
Iran still has climate-related problems; it still has drought; it still has shrinkflation, and it also has national pride that its government sent the American despot packing with his tail between his legs, a massive bill and warships sabotaged by their own crews.
Iran is still the canary in the coal mine.
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